Posted by: Peter | March 1, 2010

How to Survive a Bicycle Death Wobble

If you are an avid cyclist, and like to rocket down hills and live to tell the story, you should read some more. There are also some good lessons for motorcyclists too.

I bought a 2005 61cm Fuji Team Super Lite bicycle on Craigslist two years ago and decided to use it on a regular one hour lunch time loop in Brisbane, northern California. The ride circled San Bruno Mountain, and at its peak on Guadalupe Canyon Parkway reached 700 ft above sea level. Riding eastward, the road dives to 40 feet above sea level while only covering an extra mile of distance. It is one of the windiest roads in the Bay Area with foggy spring gusts from the Pacific Ocean often reaching 50 Mph. The road is as smooth as silk, and you can easily hit 40 Mph with little effort while getting a picturesque view of Oakland, South San Francisco and the shallow bay in between.

One day I was riding with my group and very near the bottom of this steep descent, at a speed of about 35 Mph, I was hit by a sudden burst of wind. It rocked me and I noticed that the bike began to shimmy. I tried to control the to and fro vibration of the handle bars by stiffening my arms, but it only got worse. Soon it became a very bad wobble and with each swing of the bars, the situation deteriorated. I desperately tried to brake to slow down, but the danger only increased, even at increasingly lower speeds. When I reached close to jogging speed, I jumped off the bike and began to run like a man possessed. Only divine intervention prevented me from stumbling and meeting certain injury on the asphalt. As you can see from this video it can be very violent.

Previously I had a similar experience on my 63cm Trek Madone while igniting the western descent of Hicks Road in the Almaden Valley of San Jose, but at 25 Mph, not close to 35 like in Brisbane. I braked and the bike only began to behave itself when its speed reached a complete stop. I thought nothing about it till the Fuji incident.

Both bikes, though having different frame sizes had very similar dimensions when you compared the distances between the seat, bottom bracket and handle bars.  I had used a heavier Trek 7.3 FX on many occasions before without incident on the same route and I decided to do my research.

There are many terms for this characteristic wobble or vibration. In biking forums they call it a speed wobble, or death wobble. In motor cycle forums they call it a tank slapper. At certain speeds the vehicle not only becomes unstable, but a sudden jolt close to the natural frequency of the frame can create a dangerous situation for the rider.

I replaced my wheel set with a heavier pair, the general instability was still there, but it was less. I adjusted the seat, added a longer stem to create a more relaxed stance and added thicker tires. I also trued the wheels, and that helped very noticeably with general stability improving too but even so, the problem was still there at very high speeds. I added heavier wheels, without much further gains. The Fuji, unlike the Trek, has much more responsive, lighter steering which may have contributed to the problem more than any other factor. Even on slight descents, the light weight Fuji was more fidgety.

Reading more and more I eventually discovered this close shave video on YouTube with motorbikes:

Notice how the rider with the wobble hits a bump, the front wheel hits the ground at a slight angle and then the tank slapper wobble starts. The rider loosens up and then regains control of the motorcycle. In this other YouTube video the rider fights the wobble and pays the price.

My strategy for the lunchtime ride changed. I was much looser when gripping the handlebars and firmly rested my thigh against the top tube of the frame to dampen the vibration before it started. I also slide my sitting position back till my hip bones aren’t resting on the saddle at all. This makes my thigh placement easier and also makes my center of gravity lower and shifted to the rear in a way that makes me feel more secure. Since developing this little technique in all downhill rides, my experiences have been much better. I have since discovered an article on this wobbling tendency on Wikipedia which mentions five contributors to the shimmy including the center of gravity, and dampening factors. I also mentions the stiffness of the front wheel and firm tracking by making sure your front tire isn’t under inflated. Some people say they rise off the seat a little to get a similar dampening effect, but I’m not so sure as raising your body off the seat makes the bike more unstable in general.

The result of trying this method was a much more pleasant ride and as my confidence rose I was reaching the high speeds again, though I tried not to break cycling’s Usain Bolt world record like before. It seems so counter intuitive that at high speeds you get more stability by loosening your grip on the handlebars, and especially in the biceps of your arms, but it works for me. I eventually sold the Fuji bike as I felt it was too light with unstable steering that was too loose. My Madone and custom cyclocross are much better bets.

If you have had a similar situation, let me know how you feel.

Posted by: Peter | February 1, 2010

The Sociological Curse of Interactive Internet

Will we be the victims of the sociological curse of interactive Internet? Will we become electronic vegetarians consuming only the most essential social interaction? I  think too little has been written of the impact of a pervasive connectivity will have on our lives and how it will affect face to face human interaction. We won’t withdraw to social avatars and usernames to assure our anonymity. We will selectively withdraw from the Internet to maintain our sanity. Here is why.

One interesting area for me is in the use of book readers and tablet computers. Bonnier R&D has examined how interactive layouts could change on tablets to make them more intuitive and acceptable to use by a larger audience.  When voice recognition improves it would be easy to imagine one of these devices in a coffee shop overhearing your conversations, continuously searching for information depending on the context of your conversation. Can’t remember the name of a movie with those actors? Well it will be visible right there on your electronic secretary lying face up on the table. It would search the web, your email, your social networking accounts for that data. It would be interesting, but it would also be interesting for the other person at the table too. Now they would have a synopsis of your life history in the context of the conversation. You’d have to configure your tablet for friend mode, associate mode and stranger mode.

What happens when your TV becomes internet savvy with clickable apps and a camera like your cell phone? Video conferencing with your family and friends would be great, but what about wrong numbers? Would you want them peering into your house? Society would have to establish a protocol to allow others to video conference with you. Would you automatically video conference with all your friends? It is easy to imagine simultaneously streaming high definition TV and video conferencing to your TV set. Would you want all your friends to see inside your house all the time? How would you selectively turn on and off video depending on your mood without seeming rude? Would people even bother with turning it on in the first place? Maybe we’d all become expert liars.

The amount of data bandwidth this would require would be immense. How would data networks handle this? At the moment ISPs such as AT&T and Verizon interconnect with each other in strategic data centers, or peering points, in large metropolitan regions. To relieve the pressure on these locations, repeatedly viewed static content such as popular video files and product images are often temporarily stored on servers within their network so the user can get a speedier local copy rather than getting it from the original website. This won’t be as easy with streaming video that will have to be live. To achieve the same effect, ISPs will have to find ways to spool, or continuously store the next few minutes of video coverage, so that viewers watch a slightly delayed broadcast from a neighborhood server instead of direct from the broadcaster. The benefit to the broadcaster is that they only have to engineer a solution to stream to each of a few hundred ISPs. The ISPs will have to deal with their thousands of customers, but they can create a similar system with tiers of spooling caches in each metropolitan area and neighborhood. This works with single streams going to many people. What happens when video becomes more intimate and social? Peering at the neighborhood or metropolitan level becomes a very real possibility. Congestion will also happen in the airwaves as in some areas the towers will be overloaded. Getting data out of the air and on to a wire or fiber optic cable as quickly as possible will be necessary. Every new device expected to connect to the network will have to be vetted for its data usage intensity. It is a very real engineering challenge.

While the network engineers are dealing with that problem what about the product design engineers? With an intelligent TV, would you really need a multi-button remote? One would be enough to poke virtual buttons on the screen. They should also try to devise some method to automatically detect all the entertainment devices in the home and allow you to add them as icons to your TV screen. Having a party and you want to activate your PlayStation with surround sound while playing a game on the Wii while watching the news muted all in split screen mode? It should be possible with one remote with one button. Would you like your TV to automatically turn off when guests arrive and only have it show photos of your latest vacation or your wedding? If there is an argument in your living room, should the TV continue to show the football game or begin to exude soothing melodies of Chopin with pastoral scenes as a backdrop?

What about social engineers? If someone could hack into your TV when it was on, they would have access to the equivalent to closed circuit TV inside the home, they would know where you are and whether anyone was home, and they would be able to do this from the comfort their bedroom. Blackmail would become easier. To counteract this possibility, home owners could protect themselves by converting their TVs into surveillance systems too.

It is true that humans are social beings, but has evolution prepared us for this revolution? Will we now need an application to categorize each electronic communication avenue available to us and auto-censor our relationships depending on the context? Will electronic communication be so pervasive and easy to use but so hard to control that we decide to ignore it totally? We will probably find ourselves with multi-purpose devices and pay a premium for the ability to automatically turn select features off based on life changes and circumstances instead of having them on all the time. Will some of us become electronic vegetarians, eschewing the most complex forms of intrusive communications? If it becomes overwhelming, I probably will. Only time will tell if others will follow my lead.

Posted by: Peter | January 1, 2010

My Millennium Development Goals

The Millennium Development Goals (MDG) for 2015 aim to halve poverty and hunger, school the world’s children, arrest disease, provide gender equality, spare mothers and their infants from untimely deaths,  save the environment and forge global partnerships in the pursuit of development.

The 2009 MDG report notes many successes. The poverty target seems achievable.  Between 2000 and 2007 worldwide enrolment in primary education increased from 83% to 88% with Asia and Africa showing double digit growth.  Deaths of children under five declined by an estimated 28% from 1990 to 2007. There has also been a 97% reduction in ozone layer depleting substances.

Challenges abound. The global financial crisis has had a grim impact. Hunger in developing regions rose in 2008. The estimated global unemployment rate in 2009 could reach 7.0% for men and 7.4% for women. These numbers may reveal new economic hurdles to gender equality. Disproportionate successes in eastern Asia contrast against more modest gains in the poorer regions of Africa. Increasing commodity prices threaten the availability of food and also weakens governments’ ability, policies and resolve to reduce their impact on the poor. The need to revitalize public health and educational efforts was also identified.

With such a broad scope there is bound to be debate. There are those, like Amir Attaran of the University of Ottawa, who consider the goals to be sometimes immeasurable. On the other hand some view the MDGs as being an inspirational vision of the future. Top level participation in global policy isn’t the LEAD program’s goal. Its focus would be in targeted national initiatives such as the distribution of HIV retroviral treatments, Bangladesh’s IMCI projects, Mali’s “Struggle Against Poverty” program and support for Brazil’s Bolsa Familia program, with an aim to increase their chances of success.

As you can see, I would like to expand my currently lacking altruism to a new area of my life. Do I have the skills to be of value. I have neither a PhD nor other tertiary education in economics or developmental sciences.  Even so, I feel I can actively and effectively participate with an NGO in aiding in the achievement of the MDGs.

For example, my public sector career began while working on the program to computerize the Government of Jamaica’s revenue collection process and while stationed in Panama, I worked for the Government of Trinidad and Tobago in promoting trade between that country and Latin America.

The importance of training, mobilization, promotion, governmental partnerships and public relations in public health was made very clear to me when I participated in diabetes educator programs as a Caribbean region health care sales and marketing professional.

I truly enjoy my current job as a global program manager at Google because of the human element. Technology is so often viewed as the cure, but it is the people and the processes they use that get the job done. The challenge on which I now thrive is in understanding the paradox of managing without authority, influencing through trust and commonality, determining how divergent needs can lead to common goals, and knowing the respectful importance of a handshake.

These skills developed over a 20 years have taught me to be adaptable, lead by example, implement effectively and be open to mutual learning for greater human understanding . This is the value I bring to achieve the MDGs. I hope there is an NGO out there that is willing to hear more. It is time for me to actively participate in volunteer efforts.

Posted by: Peter | December 1, 2009

Why I Wrote the “Linux Quick Fix Notebook”

During the dot com implosion that started in 2001, I was working for a managed web hosting company whose customer base evaporated with the unrealistic euphoria of the Internet. For over two and a half years we were faced with quarterly layoffs till my team of 20 was reduced to a pair of traumatized professionals.

I had been hired for my network engineering skills but I clearly needed to demonstrate additional value to the accountants to maintain any hope of remaining on the payroll. With restricted budgets, the free Linux operating system was becoming the choice of our new startup clients and knowledge of its functionality was viewed as a significant advantage. So I decided to buy a second hand PC and turned it into a small laboratory to learn more. I also set up a small website dedicated to art from my native Caribbean. Websites were cool and the web hosting company I used made it so easy with their GUI web interface.

One day at work I overheard some friends saying that they were hosting their websites from home using their DSL line. There was no GUI, but they made it seem easy. They convinced me to buy a second hand PC, get Linux and move Simiya literally “in-house” to save $10 per month.

Of course extending my UNIX skills to Linux wasn’t so easy. I generally found a majority of Linux resources on the web to be too detailed, too vague or just inaccurate. There were many excellent articles on specific topics, but they were usually part of a general interest publication, and information on related topics on the same site was sometimes hard to find.

There just wasn’t a site out there for intermediate Linux home users who wanted to get their feet wet in web hosting, nor did there seem to be any similar sites targeting the poor IT people who are told to “get Linux working by tomorrow”.

After a few months I decided that no one should have to repeat my pain and I added some technical pages to the art site. Soon, Linux Home Networking was born.

The first technical page I wrote was about configuring wireless networking for Linux mainly because my wife didn’t like the server in the bedroom. I got it all set up, but somehow everything remained under the bed until one Autumn morning when the ancient computer began to grumble very loudly. Based on the rattling noises from the hard disk I thought it was going to explode. The web server logs showed that the site had been found by Google and apparently hundreds of people per day were having the same problem.

Soon the Linux site expanded to about three dozen tutorials, each targeting the topics of the Red Hat Certified Engineer (RHCE) exam which I was eventually planning to take. The interest in the site expanded till it was receiving about 10,000 visits a day and I decided to move the server to a real data center. To cover this additional cost I started selling 600 page PDF versions of the site with content much more detailed than any of the RHCE books I had used as references.

I wanted to convert the PDFs into a real book and decided to approach all the publishers at LinuxWorld San Francisco to see whether they were interested. Armed with my web statistics and a few sample search engine for pertinent key words like “linux iptables” where the site featured prominently I arrived at my appointments made three weeks in advance to make my pitch. Prentice Hall eventually published the book as the Linux Quick Fix Notebook which has received very encouraging reviews.

I have some advice for authors. Technical books age, and I have found that keeping PDFs up to date is much faster and easier to do. It took 3 months to edit and format the book, and another 4 months to get it printed and distributed. With PDFs, modifications are instantaneous in comparison, and it is very easy to distribute an updated version of the PDF to all your readers. Make forums a part of your book’s website as you can use the questions found there to make quick updates.

I am now toying with the idea of using a similar approach to write a novel about a ficticious Caribbean island. I wrote the story 10 years ago, but never had the will to publish it till now. This time I’ll make each chapter a blog entry and see what the readership reaction will be. I’ll alter the story according to suggestions of the commentators, and who knows, maybe I’ll write another real book on a vastly different topic that appeals much less to the geek in me.

Posted by: Peter | November 1, 2009

The Alice in Wonderland Online Backup Disaster

My latest literary project is reading Alice in Wonderland in Spanish. I had been disappointed by the fact that most of the recent Latin novels I had been reading centered around “putas”, so I decided that something more uplifting was required. Little did I know that the Cheshire Cat and modern technology live in similar fantasy worlds.

After losing my files in a mysterious incident involving my 13 year old son and an aging computer that I was using as a file server, I decided to search for a really kid proof solution. After restoring my data from DVDs to a modern, but cheap $100 NAS appliance I  began looking for an automatic online backup solution.

I quickly realized that no one offers consumer backup products allow NAS backups, so I found myself having to sync data between my NAS and a sub-directory on my laptop, using Microsoft’s SyncToy as Plan A. Though SyncToy not automatic, it is free, quick, easy and requires no plastic disks. That was good enough for me.

Plan B involved searching for software that would backup this sub-directory to the cloud. I did some research and chose mozy.com as it offered free backups up to 2GB of storage for free and unlimited storage for $4.95 per month. I decided to test it one evening after work. The software downloaded and installed easily, but then as night fell, this demonic code turned into Dracula and began to suck the life out of my laptop. Whenever I opened up the client from the task bar, or started browsing through its big menu buttons Windows would freeze while oddly maintaining low CPU and memory utilization. Mozy paralyzed all my other applications while it chugged along looking for fresh blood to add to its archives. Like a true vampire, it had a single mission in life, not listening to reason. When I told it not to backup the system files suggested in its default settings it would fiendishly reselect them. It took 4 days to back up 5GB. After the backup completed I went looking through the client’s menu options to see if there were any interesting features and it would have to pause an think after each click, not a second or two, sometimes up to a minute or more, especially if you were selecting files to add to the backup set. Then the laptop froze completely, and I left it for half a day to haunt windows while it stalked potential prey. I eventually had to pull the plug and then had to live through a blue screen of death and an automatic registry fix before it would boot up properly.

Disappointed, I tried the Quicken online backup service as I use their personal finance product. The website portal was very  spartan, only having two links on the main menu, a button for credit card information and another to upgrade your service. This was a warning I should have paid more attention to as you will see later. The software was nice and fast for my initial test run using the basic 100MB service at $9.99 per year, but then I decided to increase my backup to the $149.99 for 10GB option. First, after paying, the client didn’t register the updated service status and the website’s limited options would only allow me to upgrade to a level at which I should have been already without telling me where I was. I then noticed that the web portal URL was a sub domain of backup.com and I went to that site, logged in with my Quicken credentials and saw from their much better portal that I had the 10GB service. So I downloaded their client to see whether it would work and recognize the new 10GB option, it did and the client was spiffier. Then the problems began. Just selecting more than 1024 MB, or 1GB would make client crash. I uninstalled and the Quicken client would crash too.

So the following morning I call Backup.com, which is a subsidiary of Symantec, to tell them my plight. They responded promptly but told me I had to talk to Quicken Online Backup directly and gave me their number which I phoned. According to the robotic answering machine, Quicken’s operators were all busy and it would be best to use their website to get service. The robot then hung up without even saying “good bye”. I then used the website, I had to wait 10 minutes to online chat with a representative, but when the countdown timer reached 3 seconds, and stayed that way for about 2 minutes, I tried email which promised a 24 hour turnaround. I then tried the phone option, in which you had to give your number and they would call back in an hour. I did all this before going to work, so I received the surprisingly quick email response an hour later telling me that I would have to clear my browser cookies to get the client to work. I don’t understand why the fat client, not a web client would rely on a browser cookie, but Quicken’s accounting software would do some strange things like that, so it is not entirely surprising. I quickly realized I would have to wait till I got home to test at which point I start looking at what Symantec had to offer. For $45 a year I could backup 25GB! With that revelation fresh in mind I suddenly get the customer service phone call. They apologized for the delay, but told me that I had to be in front of my PC to fix the problem. Remember, the email response had given me a repair option and I had uploaded the same screen shot to the phone support web menu and now they couldn’t help me. I canceled the service.

Symantec’s Norton Online Backup installed easily, and it runs a little webserver behind the scenes that is only accessible from your laptop not the Internet. (For the techies, it runs on localhost 127.0.0.1) When you click on the client. it pops up a web browser page that references data on your little webserver and from the Symantec too. This was problematic for me too. I click on the client icon in the task bar and when Internet Explorer loads the client complains that I have to have IE6 or higher, and I am running IE8. Then Firefox, running the noscript plugin, recognizes that my computer shouldn’t be running a webserver, even if it is not accessible from the web and gets a coronary, but fortunately allows me the option to ignore the craziness for this particular scenario.

After all this, the backup is working well. The first backup of 5GB took about 30 hours and the incremental updates since then have been speedy.

Alice found things becoming curiouser and curiouser, and so did I.

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